India ‘cautious but optimistic’ over US trade deal

India is taking a “cautious but optimistic approach” to its proposed bilateral trade agreement (BTA) with the United States, according to Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal, who added that the government would not compromise national interest for the sake of speed.

Responding to questions on the India-US trade negotiations, Goyal said: “We do not negotiate at gunpoint. Timely restrictions are good as they encourage us to talk swiftly, but until we can protect the interests of the country and people, it is never good to be hasty.” The minister underlined that every step in the talks is taken with ‘India first’ in mind, aligning with the long-term vision of Viksit Bharat 2047 – the initiative with the goal of making India a developed nation by its centennial year of independence.

India and the US are working toward finalising the first phase of the agreement by September or October this year. The two sides have set an ambitious goal to more than double bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030, up from the current $191 billion.

“Considering the growth trajectory India is expected to follow over the next 25–30 years, with a young, aspirational population driving demand, we believe India presents a compelling case for a strong bilateral trade agreement with the United States,” Goyal said at a press conference.

Meanwhile, Goyal noted that discussions with the European Union on a free trade agreement are also progressing, but stressed that such talks succeed only when both parties are sensitive to each other’s concerns. He acknowledged that Indian businesses often face non-tariff barriers in the EU market, which remain a sticking point in negotiations.

Speaking at the Italy-India Business Forum, the minister also highlighted the urgent need to fast-track the India-EU free trade agreement. “Concrete steps need to be taken,” he urged, suggesting that the agreement could significantly strengthen economic ties between both regions.

Goyal pointed to the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC) as a strategic initiative that could deepen India’s engagement with Italy and other EU nations. He called for smoother investment flows and reduced trade hurdles between India and Italy, noting the existing trade volume of $15 billion has room to grow substantially.

“There is tremendous potential to grow,” Goyal said, adding that promoting investment and ensuring seamless trade could unlock new opportunities for both sides.

The minister said that the Indian authorities are on alert to prevent any misuse of trade routes. A close watch is being maintained to ensure that other countries do not route their exports through India to evade US tariffs. Similarly, the Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs (CBIC) has been instructed to monitor that Indian exporters do not use third countries to reroute goods.

Officials emphasized that India remains a trusted trade partner of the US, and any such circumvention could damage that reputation.

Exports hit record levels

India’s total exports of goods and services rose by 5.5% to a record $820.93 billion in the financial year ending March 31, compared with $773 billion in the previous year, according to Commerce Secretary Sunil Barthwal. This growth comes despite global economic uncertainties and trade tensions, he said.

Merchandise exports stood at $437.4 billion, while non-petroleum exports registered a 6% year-on-year increase, reaching $374.08 billion in FY25.

However, India’s trade deficit widened to $21.54 billion in March, up from $14.05 billion in February, according to data from the Ministry of Commerce and Industry. Merchandise exports rose marginally by 0.7% to $41.97 billion during the month, while imports surged by 11.3% to $63.51 billion, leading to the broader gap.

Compared with February, exports in March jumped 13.75%, while imports grew 24.6%.